MLS: A Developing League

So much has been written about the progress of the USMNT in this World Cup, and only recently, as Pitch Invasion points out, has the coverage started to include Major League Soccer's influence on the team.  Even Don Garber was on ESPN this morning discussing the boost this will bring to the domestic league and interest in the sport.  Any kind of "World Cup bump" has yet to materialize in 16 years of MLS, but there's no telling what will happen this time around, especially if interest finally hits some kind of critical mass at home.  Regardless, things must be kept in perspective.  As the league returns to play this week, it must continue to progress on its current course, developing individual talent and maintaining a rising caliber of play.

American fans must still keep in mind that Major League Soccer has always had a strong developmental focus.  The death of the reserve league and other related cutbacks have happened, but overall the league has succeeded in giving talented Americans a springboard to bigger and better things.  It is hard to argue that Tim Howard or Landon Donovan would have had any kind of European success without a domestic league to provide at least a basic level of professional competition.  MLS has been both a safety net and a showcase in this respect, with almost every rising start pegged to go abroad at some point.  This will be a part of the American game for some time, and these cases should be seen as victories for the league as well as the national team.  However, there is still plenty of room to grow, and as the league progresses, there must still be a clear path to professional soccer for domestic players.  There are still few players who can call their MLS service time a "career", with many players, especially young players, having to find other income elsewhere to survive.   Professional soccer needs to become a secure and legitimate choice for high school athletes, competitive with rookie contracts in other major sports.  Rising investment in youth development and pay scale will help make this a reality, and MLS is already well on this path.

The league as a whole would benefit from a strong development base, eventually seeing a gradual rise in overall talent complemented with international talent (DP or not).  Staying on this course will see the league continue to develop its impact on the international stage, and create a virtuous cycle that keeps interest high, revenue up, and attract more talent.  This will not happen overnight, and those in charge need to always keep an eye on keeping the balance between (over)paying for talent and developing the national player pool.

The Soccer Scorecard

I have a terrible habit of trying to form an argument through vague generalizations.  I can go on at length to discuss my opinion of a focused topic, but eventually end up painting with a broad brush.  My recent scribbles on eurosnobs or MLS hardcores, or whatever designations I feel like throwing around could come across as unfair generalizations.  So, in an attempt to clear this up, I want to try to reexplain my position on soccer fanhood through yet another arbitrary exercise.

I believe that every American can define their soccer fanhood along three dimensions: local team, foreign team, national team.  The degree of their support in each of these dimensions helps define who they are in terms of the soccer community.  For each area, a person could give themselves a letter grade as follows:

F: No awareness or interest in the team.  Would gladly take $5 over the team winning any kind of championship (i.e. Bill Simmons' litmus test for the WNBA)

D: Aware of the team, but not interested.

C: Slightly knowledgeable of team, could easily be swayed to one side of the fence or the other.

B: Follows the team, watches a good amount of games on TV or in person, and has formed opinions on team news.

A: Diehard fan, almost never misses a game, likely travels often to see team in person, and has scheduled life around matches on more than one occasion.

Under this subjective scale, you could say that an MLS diehard has an A grade for the local team and lower grades for foreign and national sides, a eurosnob would have a similar score but for a foreign team, while a member of Sam's Army might lean towards just the high grade for USMNT.

Back to my original point in all of this mess, the main goal for American soccer is still to increase interest in the sport by whatever means necessary.  Having a high grade in one area tends to lean towards high grades in other areas.  Foreign fans may have a poor opinion of MLS, but at least they have an opinion, which is still better than having no opinion at all.  MLS hardcores might bristle at the thought of Americans having high soccer IQs but low MLS interest, but its still on the path out of the so-called "Dark Ages" where wide swaths of the population would fail on all three levels.  

Second Division Pipe Dreaming

While everyone is distracted by that big international going-on in South Africa, I can't help but want to get all meta on the American soccer landscape.  It occurs to me that the World Cup Break basically symbolizes the halfway point of MLS season (dont call out the math), and we are all one step closer to Portland and Vancouver joining the league in 2011.  I still cant look at that, along with Montreal headed for 2012, and not think "Man, USL is in some deep deep trouble."  Holding everything equal, 2012 USL is basically this:

-Austin 

-Minnesota

-Puerto Rico

-Rochester

-Tampa Bay

-Orlando (?)

-St Louis (?)

-Carolina

-Crystal Palace Baltimore

-Miami

That's 10 teams, assuming Orlando still has everything in order to get playing next season and St. Louis doesn't fall any further down the rabbit hole.  I argue so far as letting the other USL-2 teams into the mix.

Current USL-2 teams:

-Charleston

-Charlotte

-Harrisburg City (PA)

-Pittsburgh

-Real (Really?) Maryland

-Richmond

The whole setup strikes me as basically an East Coast/Southeast league that, while not the biggest markets in the world, has some regionality to keep things going.  Yeah, I'm banging that regional drum once again, and the league has some outposts out in St. Louis, Austin, and Minnesota, but these are far cries from Portland as far as travel is concerned.  In fact, Austin and Minnesota are big (enough) markets so that shouldn't be too much of a factor, if, and this is a big if, the league can gain some traction.  

I'm not suggesting that America is 4 teams away from a real live 40 team, two-tier, pro-reg system, but a bit of stability in the second division would go a long way to improving the caliber of the American professional soccer player.  No, its not going to find the next member of the USMNT any time soon, but a functional second-league would be the beginnings of developing a true middle-class of soccer talent in this country.  The USL has always prided itself on player development, and in recent years I have seen a number of players sent to USL for seasoning or getting a crack at MLS.  However, the league has been such a forgettable mess in many aspects.  The stretched out conference map, some here today gone tomorrow type teams, and the whole USL-TOA business have been some serious hurdles to the long-term viability of any kind of US second-division.

Today, the opportunity is there for some real staying power in the lower leagues.  I view the losses of developed markets in Portland, Vancouver, and Montreal as the step backward needed to take two steps forward.  MLS has gained enough traction that the expansion guessing game has come into focus.  The days of the Rochester Rhinos angling for MLS membership are probably firmly in the past, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a place for this kind of club.  Consider that most of the remaining teams are relatively close to one another, add in a few more "flier" type markets over time, and the new second division could start making some headway in the Southeast, not unlike some of the best minor-league baseball leagues.  

That is where I think the second division, whatever it wants to call itself, should be headed.  Focus on the DC/Virginia/Carolina region, with major markets like Atlanta, Miami, and far flung Minneapolis, and build a league that gives college players (and ACC country should be swimming in them) the opportunity to keep playing professional soccer without having to flip burgers on the side.  It's not that simple, but it would be a start.  Many of these teams have weathered enough storms over the years and they are still here.  Setting a more stable course for them, a more realistic course that acts more to complement MLS than compete, and from that stability, work slowly but surely towards a true soccer pyramid.  It won't be pretty at times, but it can be done.

New York expansion still a dream

It has long been the rumor that MLS would place a second club in New York City.  As the league laid out its plans for expansion, the speculation continued to build that NYC2 was a foregone conclusion.  While there is a lot of conventional wisdom in this line of thinking, I’m just seeing too many holes in the logic to expect this to be a reality any time soon.  The league just has too much at stake, on a number of levels, to make another big bet on New York.  Because that’s what it would take, a sizeable commitment from someone with deep pockets, a knowledgeable soccer marketing machine, and a second “soccer palace” inside the city limits.  Anything short of this is doomed to repeat the mistakes of Red Bull.  Fake Sigi has given this matter a lot of thought, and where he sees MLS preparing to double down their wagers, I see a league taking its money off of the table and keeping it off.  He makes a number of valid points about Don Garber’s desire for the New York market and the league’s apparent willingness to let big market teams act a bit more like big market teams, but in the bigger picture, the timing can’t be right for NYC2.

The first piece of the puzzle would be a new soccer stadium within the city limits.  Considering the numerous obstacles faced by other NY franchises attempting the same feats in more established leagues, I cant see something on the level of Red Bull Arena being thrown together in time for MLS to grant the franchise.  The league is at 19 teams for 2012, and given their recent timing, I would be shocked if they didn’t want to have number 20 announced before the end of the season, or SuperDraft at the latest.  Personally, I think the Chelsea Pier project would work, but there is likely way too much red tape to punch that through any time soon.  Could the Wilpons build themselves a new sports complex out in Queens, coupling the Mets’ new Citi Field with a shiny “Cosmos” Stadium?  This has been the original rumor for about 5 years, but why hasn’t it ever come off the drawing board?

The league has grown to understand over time that the most important piece of an MLS team’s marketing is local relevancy.  Being a visible force in the market, and winning the hearts and minds of fans, all sports fans, is a big part of the secret sauce that makes the darling clubs in Seattle and Toronto what they are.  This has always been the league’s challenge in New York, and for 15 years the efforts in New York misfired on virtually all cylinders.  The supposed flagship franchise played historically terrible soccer in a fledgling sports league in a cavernous NFL stadium somewhere near the Newark airport.  To avoid these issues AND the stigma of MetroBull failure, NYC2 would need a management team with the right mix of soccer knowhow and world-class marketing.  In 15 seasons of MLS, only Seattle has resembled anything close to the front-office machine needed to succeed on the country’s biggest media stage, and Seattle has its own advantages unique to their market and geography.  I don’t necessarily know if it would be as simple as copying their playbook, but it would be a good start.

Really though, I would argue that New York’s indifference to MLS is not completely the fault of the MetroBulls.  In a way, they have carried the burden of a league scrapping for market share in a crowded American sports landscape.  As the MLS has struggled to be relevant as a whole, those struggles are amplified in New York, and the local club has suffered more than they should have.  The league has to move closer to something resembling an actual sports league and away from the muddled single-entity, soccer-related business concern it has resembled in its initial years.  Now that we have some teams owned by competing entities and not a stadium conglomerate, a bit more flexibility in roster construction, and god-willing, a rising caliber of play, the days of “Minor League Soccer” may finally be behind the league and its most favored market.  So why should they risk Red Bull success now, after all of the effort may finally pay off?

This isn’t to say the door is closing forever on a second New York club, but the league is still not ready for a market, even the biggest, to sustain two clubs.  The current system is still too fragile to take the risks, especially under such a bright spotlight and such high stakes.  Perhaps down the road, NYC2 will be a reality, but not as the 20^th team.  If I had to guess, I would say the league would need to expand past 20 teams or find a club to relocate to New York, but that’s random speculation of a completely different sort.