New York expansion still a dream

It has long been the rumor that MLS would place a second club in New York City.  As the league laid out its plans for expansion, the speculation continued to build that NYC2 was a foregone conclusion.  While there is a lot of conventional wisdom in this line of thinking, I’m just seeing too many holes in the logic to expect this to be a reality any time soon.  The league just has too much at stake, on a number of levels, to make another big bet on New York.  Because that’s what it would take, a sizeable commitment from someone with deep pockets, a knowledgeable soccer marketing machine, and a second “soccer palace” inside the city limits.  Anything short of this is doomed to repeat the mistakes of Red Bull.  Fake Sigi has given this matter a lot of thought, and where he sees MLS preparing to double down their wagers, I see a league taking its money off of the table and keeping it off.  He makes a number of valid points about Don Garber’s desire for the New York market and the league’s apparent willingness to let big market teams act a bit more like big market teams, but in the bigger picture, the timing can’t be right for NYC2.

The first piece of the puzzle would be a new soccer stadium within the city limits.  Considering the numerous obstacles faced by other NY franchises attempting the same feats in more established leagues, I cant see something on the level of Red Bull Arena being thrown together in time for MLS to grant the franchise.  The league is at 19 teams for 2012, and given their recent timing, I would be shocked if they didn’t want to have number 20 announced before the end of the season, or SuperDraft at the latest.  Personally, I think the Chelsea Pier project would work, but there is likely way too much red tape to punch that through any time soon.  Could the Wilpons build themselves a new sports complex out in Queens, coupling the Mets’ new Citi Field with a shiny “Cosmos” Stadium?  This has been the original rumor for about 5 years, but why hasn’t it ever come off the drawing board?

The league has grown to understand over time that the most important piece of an MLS team’s marketing is local relevancy.  Being a visible force in the market, and winning the hearts and minds of fans, all sports fans, is a big part of the secret sauce that makes the darling clubs in Seattle and Toronto what they are.  This has always been the league’s challenge in New York, and for 15 years the efforts in New York misfired on virtually all cylinders.  The supposed flagship franchise played historically terrible soccer in a fledgling sports league in a cavernous NFL stadium somewhere near the Newark airport.  To avoid these issues AND the stigma of MetroBull failure, NYC2 would need a management team with the right mix of soccer knowhow and world-class marketing.  In 15 seasons of MLS, only Seattle has resembled anything close to the front-office machine needed to succeed on the country’s biggest media stage, and Seattle has its own advantages unique to their market and geography.  I don’t necessarily know if it would be as simple as copying their playbook, but it would be a good start.

Really though, I would argue that New York’s indifference to MLS is not completely the fault of the MetroBulls.  In a way, they have carried the burden of a league scrapping for market share in a crowded American sports landscape.  As the MLS has struggled to be relevant as a whole, those struggles are amplified in New York, and the local club has suffered more than they should have.  The league has to move closer to something resembling an actual sports league and away from the muddled single-entity, soccer-related business concern it has resembled in its initial years.  Now that we have some teams owned by competing entities and not a stadium conglomerate, a bit more flexibility in roster construction, and god-willing, a rising caliber of play, the days of “Minor League Soccer” may finally be behind the league and its most favored market.  So why should they risk Red Bull success now, after all of the effort may finally pay off?

This isn’t to say the door is closing forever on a second New York club, but the league is still not ready for a market, even the biggest, to sustain two clubs.  The current system is still too fragile to take the risks, especially under such a bright spotlight and such high stakes.  Perhaps down the road, NYC2 will be a reality, but not as the 20^th team.  If I had to guess, I would say the league would need to expand past 20 teams or find a club to relocate to New York, but that’s random speculation of a completely different sort.